Herasymiuk M
Determination of sex and age characteristics of the risk of progressing chronic tonsillitis on the basis of regression analysis using the Bayes formula
Herasymiuk Maksym I
I.Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University
Associate professor of the otolaryngology, ophthalmology and neurosurgery department
PhD, Associate professor
E-mail: herasymyuk_m@tdmu.edu.ua
Orcid ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8566-7426
Scopus Author ID: 57218549973
ResearcherID: B-7826-2018
DETERMINATION OF SEX AND AGE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RISK OF PROGRESSING CHRONIC TONSILLITIS ON THE BASIS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS USING THE BAYES FORMULA
Herasymiuk M
I.Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University
Email: herasymyuk_m@tdmu.edu.ua
Abstract
Topicality: From 12.5% to 22.1% of the population, according to statistics, suffers from chronic tonsillitis, which is from 22% to 40% among all chronic ENT pathologies. Therefore, the issues of treatment and prevention of various forms of the disease come first.
A specific feature of chronic tonsillitis is a progressive course with a high probability of developing several metatonsillar complications. Therefore, the question of predicting the potential risks of chronic tonsillitis progression depending on its form, pathogenesis, sex and age remains open and relevant.
Objective: to establish the sex and age dependence of the risk of chronic tonsillitis progression in patients using regression analysis and the Bayes formula.
Materials and methods: An examination of 100 patients was conducted, including 51 women and 49 men, aged 18 to 70 years, with a diagnosis of chronic tonsillitis, who were undergoing outpatient treatment in the surgical department of the polyclinic of the communal non-commercial enterprise “Ternopil Municipal Emergency Hospital”. The average age of the patients was 37 years, and the duration of the disease varied within 5-8 years.
Results: With the help of multivariate regression analysis, 12 probable risk factors were analysed and used to build a mathematical model of the risk of chronic tonsillitis progression. The Nigelkirk coefficient of determination was calculated, which was R2=0.929 in the group of men, and R2=0.9188 in the group of women, which states that, in our case, 92.9% of the factors in the group of men were considered in the model for predicting the risk of chronic tonsillitis progression and 91, 88% of factors in the group of women. Using the Bayes formula, the analysis of the selected patients showed a higher probability of the risk of chronic tonsillitis progression in the group of men compared to the group of women. At the same time, it is noted that men of middle age (45-60 years) and young men (25-44 years) are more prone to the chronic tonsillitis progression.
Key words: chronic tonsillitis, Bayes formula, regression analysis, prognosis, progression.
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